First up, an apology for the lack of posts lately. I’ve been busy and I got far too distracted by the “utegate” shenanigans. I have quite a few posts lined up and I’ll be getting to work on my history and background of NSW politics so be sure to visit often.
Now to the poll.
Published in The Australian today, Newspoll has Labor’s primary vote down two points to 31 per cent, the Coalition up one point to 41 per cent for a two party preferred figure of 55-45.
Nathan Rees’ satisfaction rating has dropped four points to 30 per cent and his dissatisfaction is up three to 49 per cent. Barry O’Farrell’s satisfaction and dissatisfaction are both on 34 per cent.
There’s a few interesting things to talk about in light of this poll. My opinion is that the two party preferred number in this poll is inflated for Labor, due to NSW’s optional preferential system of voting. 31 percent, while not as bad as the woeful 26 per cent recorded last year, is a extremely low result and it’s very unlikely Labor would win government on that figure.
Another thing to mention is the growth in The Greens vote. Possum has a neat graph showing The Greens vote has doubled from the 7 percent recorded at the last election to 14 percent in this poll.
The low figures for Nathan Rees will probably add a bit of fuel to the leadership speculation but the last Labor caucus meeting until September was today and nothing dramatic happened.
So bad news for Labor and Rees, good news for The Greens and the Coalition, but how’s Opposition leader Barry O’Farrell tracking? Well given we’re still more than 18 months out from election, the figures are pretty good for him. He’s only one point behind Rees in the preferred premier ratings and one third of the electorate is yet to make up their mind about him. With the next election not until 2011 he has plenty of time to release a few policies and endear himself to the electorate.
It will be much easier for him to swing the 32 per cent of voters who are unsure what to think of him than it will be for Rees to claw his way back from dissatisfaction figures.
So much for Labor making a comeback.
lol, you speak the truth Ben! Vale NSW Labor?
And good riddance I would dare say.
And good riddance? Yes but what do we have to look forward to? Two or three terms of a Liberal State government? What a state we live in.
Actually, I think (in the short-term) it would be good riddance. The ALP really does a term or two in Opposition to get itself together and work out what it actually stands for. Being in Government can become an end itself, and parties start to see everything from the prism of government if they have been in for too long. There hasn’t been any programmatic renewal within the ALP for quite some time, as far as I can tell, which would be a necessity to be able to govern in the long term.
Don’t be too sure.
there will be a big swing away from the ALP, but where?
And who will it benefit?
Three factors that could prove quirky in the lead up to 2011:
- There is a Federal election first. Rudd has a seven seat margin and a lot can happen between now and then.
- Optional preferential voting means that the Libs may not necessarily get preference flows to get them over the line.
- The high chance of a significant number of greens and independents being alected to the lower house.
We could be headed for a minority government. The Libs have got 53% of the 2PP vote before and still lost.
Oh!
And as for what Labor stands for:
‘How Labor Governs’ by Vere Godon Childe. It’s as relevant today as when it was first written in the twenties – a must read for anyone interested in NSW politics.
The Labor Party stands for getting elected. Full stop.
Always has been. Always will be.
There are fence posts that have more ideology than Sussex street. If there’s a vote in it, they’ll do it. Tripodi is so dumb he thinks the Metro is going to buy the ALP Balmain. What do you expect from a crew that think Lowes’ suits are stylish.