This afternoon Premier Nathan Rees unveiled what I would call a pretty significant cabinet reshuffle.
As expected, Tony Kelly has been dumped as Police Minister and Carmel Tebbutt has shifted from Environment to Health. Ian Macdonald has lost Energy.
Corrective Services Minister John Robertson has picked up Environment and Energy.
Michael Daley has been promoted to the Police Ministry.
Transport Minister David Campbell has picked up Roads from Daley.
This reshuffle is a clever move from Rees, on a number of fronts. He’s demoted enemies such as Tony Kelly and Ian Macdonald who have been undermining his leadership for months.
Giving Environment and Energy to the same Minister pre-empts any tensions that might arise by the creation of new super-departments. Environment and Energy will come under the same umbrella, as will Roads and Transport.
The most interesting change in all this is John Robertson. His gaining of both Environment and Energy speak volumes. As Hamish Coffee pointed out if Rees gave Environment to Balmain MP Verity Firth, who will be under threat in 2011 from The Greens, it would suggest an upcoming pro-environment push. By giving it to Robertson, it appears no such policy shift is on the way.
Robertson, who’s first priority in Corrective Services was prison’s privatisation, has been put in charge of much more contentious policy – electricity privatisation. This is particularly ironic given that as the head of Unions NSW, John Robertson lead the charge against electricity privatisation when it was first proposed by Morris Iemma.
Cynics might suggest that Rees is trying to keep Robertson, who is often tipped as a future Premier, too busy to plot.
LOL, maybe they should bring back Reba Meagher!
Roads and transport should always be a single portfolio, so that’s one good thing.
Robertson supports Rees, I wouldn’t look too much into that.
I think, in a strictly tactical sense, that it’s smart not to put the enviroment minister in a seat influenced by the Green vote.
The Greens will always have more environmental ‘cred’ than the major parties because its such a central part of their platform; so a Green-leaning ALP member still wouldn’t pick up votes from those who see the environment as number one issue. But if an environment minister in a Green-leaning seat makes a decision that wouldn’t be popular amongst environmentally conscious voters, they lose twice. Diverting the attention, if you will, is tactically pretty strong (I know that people always complain about health, but reports and comparisons do show that NSW does have one of the better health systems in Australia).
Phil Koperberg rumoured to be resigning according to Sun Herald, you bewdy.
They’ve entered end stage. Loverly!!!
Cool. Bring on a by-election in Blue Mountains, anyone could win it, except Labor.
Umm, Pat Hills… you do know that Meagher is no longer in Parliament, don’t you?
A pro-environment push would probably be a pointless exercise at this stage for Labor. The Inner City could well ditch Labor en masse for Greens or Independents, and the Suburbs aren’t particularly interested in green policies anyway. I’m suprised that Firth and Tebutt haven’t already begun shopping around for safer seats… then again, its likely that no seat is safe.
Oz
any chance you might do a post on possible battlefield seats?
gusface
Antony Green has a recent post with the electoral pendulum if you want to start with a list of marginal seats:
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2009/09/nsw-2011-electoral-pendulum.html
And Ben has an excellent post here from a couple of months back of how recent polling would translate into seats changing hands based on a uniform swing:
http://www.tallyroom.com.au/1597
Does that help?
Something I’d like to do Gusface, but I’d have trouble defining battleground seats. I think I’d save it for closer to the election.
List of battleground seats? Hmmm its just such a target rich environment.
Of course one would assume in the current climate the Shire and Central Coast are gone for the ALP. Which is 5 seats alone and end of a majority.
But really its just going to be the mother of all bloodbaths – one has to assume anything with less than 10% margin is gone and even then there are few roughies for the taking, Would anyone bet on the ALP retaining say Oatley 14.7 or Strathfield 15.1?
These areas were always marginals until the 90’s and there is a good chance they will return to the mean.
10% means 36 seats for the ALP – which they would regard as an excellent result. It’ll be worse but too early and too hard to say just how much worse.
Two seats I find noteworthy are Bathurst (13.0) and Kogarah (17.7), which were two of the key battleground seats at the 1995 election. How times change.
Oz, do you have any insights though into any seats Labor may have already decided to basically give up on? (If one assumes they haven’t decided to basically give up everywhere, which is what it looks like most days!)
Now they’re looking to remove the legislative barriers that prevent rail corridors being sold off (target Newcastle and Byron Bay?) – anything not for sale in this state?
cheers oz,nick c, pat hills.
I think pat is onto something with those outliers (oatley and strath).
The result will be a lot closer than what pat would like but I think also nick has hit the nail on the head with this.
[Oz, do you have any insights though into any seats Labor may have already decided to basically give up on? ]
Im sure the libs have drawn up their “battlefield seats” and wonder how close this would coincide with labor’s give ups.
The ALP seats above 10% that I think the Libs could well win would be the following:
Riverstone
Rockdale
Blue Mountains (what is Koperberg really going to do?)
Bathurst
Parramatta
Oatley
East Hills
Toongabbie
Strathfield
Anything else above 10% would be a major shock. And they won’t win Cabramatta either, even though it’s currently sitting on Reba’s by-election margin (7%).
Looks like Kogaran needs to be added to your list rogan. A firm called Nationwide Market Research (based in Perth) is polling some “1999 marginals” like Kogarah and asking about the punters views on the local member. The swing is on…..
Tele report confirming my previous post:
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw-act/rees-readies-for-2011-election-wipeout/story-e6freuzi-1225775289570
Yeah baby I am ready now for der untergang!!!!! The next 18 months will only make it sweeter.
@Rogan,
Considering the Liberal aren’t contesting the seat of Bathurst it seems unlikely they will win it.
Perhaps you mean the National Party?
Hey Oz, you around? A post on this article might make for some interesting discussion:
http://www.smh.com.au/national/alp-turning-on-itself-libs-reveal-poll-strategy-20090919-fw47.html
Hey Oz, I have also started a blog with a focus on NSW politics. It looks at things from the perspective of the ALP Centre Unity grouping. My first post is up now at:
http://alpright.wordpress.com
I hope people enjoy the discussion
This reshuffle ushers in power, courage, intelligence, honesty and above all integrity. The ALP and in particular Nathan Rees deserve praise for such a bold move in tough times.
Could someone hand me my medication please.
Hey OZ, given up the ghost already?
Hi fellow NSW political tragics – I’ve added a new post on the Herald’s coverage of the McGurk murder and his claimed links to the ALP.
Would be great to see some comments.
http://alpright.wordpress.com
With respect, nswright, I’d probably focus a bit less on the “Anyone who attacks the NSW Right is biased or a liar!” stuff and more on actual analysis of the political situation in NSW. Even better, on the internal machinations of the NSW ALP and the Right faction at a very difficult time politically.
Again, with respect, the first couple of posts come off a bit like a poor man’s Andrew Landeryou, which is not necessarily a good thing.
First McGurk, now Oz! I demand a royal commission!
Media release I saw:
NSW Government on track in the River Red Gums
October 1, 2009
Premier Nathan Rees today welcomed the release of the first independent assessment report by the Natural Resources Commission on the River Red Gum and Woodland Forests.
“Our timetable for the River Red Gums is on track and now is the time for everyone to participate,” Mr Rees said.
“The NSW Government asked the Commission to report back with an interim assessment on the River Red Gum and Woodland Forests by September 30 and that is exactly what they’ve done.
“The release of this report is an important step forward in understanding the complex environmental, social and economic issues associated with the River Red Gum forests.
“The Natural Resources Commission’s role in producing this independent assessment is to bring a broader perspective to the debate, analysing what are complex environmental and ecological issues.
“I would encourage everyone interested to have their say – we want to ensure we have a transparent and thorough community consultation process.
“The more engaged the community is in these issues, the better the outcome will be for the future of the River Red Gums.
“The Government will make a decision on the long term future of the region that balances the interests of local communities, industries and the environment.”
Minister for Climate Change and the Environment John Robertson said the wetland ecosystems in the River Red Gum forests are currently under threat from continuing drought and reduced water flows which are being compounded by climate change.
“The NRC process will contribute to the protection of the some of the most environmentally significant areas of the state for years to come,” Mr Robertson said.
Minister for Primary Industries Ian Macdonald said the assessment being undertaken by the NRC will also make recommendations on a sustainable future for the forest industry and local communities.
“Forests NSW and other Industry & Investment agencies have been working closely on the provision of information, providing expert contextual information and facilitating tours of the red gum forests with the NRC members, with FNSW staff, industry and Aboriginal organisations,” Mr Macdonald said.
The Natural Resources Commission has called for public responses to the report to be submitted by October 23 and is required to deliver its final report on the River Red Gum Forests to the Government on 30 November.
That’s the nice Mr Rees who wants to sell off the rail lines isn’t it? And that’d be the same nice Mr Robertson who seems to have gotten his name linked into the McGurk mess, wouldn’t it? I hear some in his new department aren’t convinced he’ll last any longer the string of other Ministers they’ve had. And I seem to remember that they’ve been almost promising to do something about the River Red Gums for a little while now. Still, if people want to make a submission they should go to: http://www.nrc.nsw.gov.au/Workwedo/Forestassessment.aspx#tag1 and read the materials.
Pardon my cynicism Hamish, but I will withhold any congratulations until I see some actual results – I’ve heard one too many empty promises. But of course the preliminary report is just that and should be treated as a work-in-progress. Lets hope the results of the submissions and community consultations lead to some action.
So I heard that Ian Cohen isn’t standing again (sadly).
And I assume that Hale isn’t and Lee Rhiannan is leaving. Any word on preselection favourites?
Is Ben Oqvuist still in NSW or Tassie now?
Big changes.
Hamish
You can see the list of candidates here:
http://www.nsw.greens.org.au/greens-nsw-commence-legislative-council-preselection
It’s a very strong field.
I was just about to post that link. Thanks Nick.
Maybe Oz could do a bit of a run down of the candidates. I’d like to see Jan Barham get it and keep a north coast green voice.
Ah, Oz, well he has been elected along the way (I’ll leave you to guess or himt o say where), so I suspect he is all busy now. As to Ben Oquist, he’s in Canberra as Bob’s Chief of Staff.
And as to speculation on the internal machinations of the Greens, the ABC reported yesterday morning that the list included “Jan Barham, Mayor of Byron, Wollahara Councillor David Shoebridge and Rockdale Councillor Lesa de Leau”. This didn’t show up on the news report on their website. So, does this mean the ABC thinks Jan, David and Lesa are the front runners??? I wonder what the other Councillors who nomated – Chris Harris (Sydney City), Rodney Degans (Coffs Harbour), Jeremy Buckingham (Orange), Jeff Johnson (Ballina), Amanda Findley (Shoalhaven), Sue Wynn (Wyong), James Ryan (Cessknock), Christine Donayre (Burwood), Cathy Griffin (Manly) – think of this. And then there’s Cate Faerhmann (Nature Conservation Council Director), who you would have to think has a reasonable profile…
Interesting to note that out of the 16 names for the 2 preselections (for Lee R’s seat, and for the 2011 election ticket), 12 are local Councillors. Who says local council isn’t a breeding ground for budding pollies…
Oh, and if you’re not aware, Ben Raue is the returning officer for this ballot so wont be commenting on his site (Tally Room) about it!
So do voting forms get mailed out or do members need to turn up at some god-awful RSL for an afternoon?
Postal voting – if you were a non-probationary member last Friday (ie; a member for 3 months and been approved by your local group) you get a vote. Ben Raue, the poor guy, has to make sure it happens. From memory, you also needed to be a paid-up member as of last Friday to get a vote too, so those who forgot to send in their money after the July 1 renewal date wont be finding a ballot paper in the mail either.
Excellent, thanks Stewart.
What, you mean no one volunteers to help with all that?
Whassup?
Well, not quite – there’ll be a working bee in the office to stuff envelopes, and again for the count (usually a select group who are mostly ex-returning officers themselves – so know what its like!). Its actually making sure that there are “meet the candidate” meetings (7 this time) around the state, ensuring the ballot security (so a security system to prevent multiple voting), getting things printed (and with 16 candidates that’s a bit), running two ballots at the same time and NOT getting things mixed up, and generally herding 16 cats…err Greens…. It usually works out okay, but it is a voluntary position, and its a lot of work. And when it doesn’t work its right pain in the proverbial.