The Liberal and National parties in NSW have formally signed an agreement clarifying their relationship in the build up to the next election.
The National Party will run in Monaro (ALP), Tamworth (IND), Dubbo (IND) and Bathurst (ALP). The Liberals will run in Wollondilly (ALP) and gain an extra spot on the upper house ticket.
On current numbers I would expect the Liberals to win both those seats, The Nationals to win Monaro and be competitive in Tamworth and Dubbo.
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Wollondilly will be a pushover.
So I take it the Libs are also leaving Port Macquarie to the Nats? Libs have expressed interest in running there previously, and it could just as easily be regained by the Coalition as Tamworth and Dubbo. Like the other two ‘second generation’ independents, who’ve been unable to hold the support of their predecessors, I would expect Besseling to face a tough fight to hold on at a general election.
Port Macquarie is an interesting one, since it was excluded from this deal but is a seat where tensions between the Nationals and the Liberals run high.
I think Besseling is likely to hold onto the seat though. The good people of Port Macquarie like having an indie MP and Besseling is a hard working MP with strong connections to the extremely popular federal MP and former state MP Rob Oakeshott.
I can see why the Libs should want to be the party to contest Port Macquaire though. I just looked up the figures from the last time the Libs had a candidate in that area, the 1993 federal election, and they beat the Nats in Port Macquarie – Mark Vaile only got up because he did much better at the Taree end of the seat.
Steve Whan is very popular in Monaro, I’m tipping him to hold against a Nat.
A Lib, like the Queanbeyan mayor for example, would have been a far better choice for the Tories.
I think Peter Draper should hold on too, he’s very popular up there.
Dubbo is the Nats best shot at an Indi by far – actually, looking at the NSW pendulum, after Monaro, the next possible Nat gain from Labor is Cessnock at over 12%.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the Nats will end up even after the next election (losing an MLC to the Libs and gaining Dubbo).
Yes, Whan appears to be a rather popular local member, actually got a small swing to him in 2007, so could very well hold on (I wouldn’t be betting against him at this stage anyway).
Noteworthy that Bathurst, now considered out of reach for the Nats, was one of the cliffhanger seats of the 1995 election.
Agree that Dubbo is still their most likely gain, and that Draper should hold his seat. I would expect the Nats may go backwards though, as I think it likely (especially with the complicity of Labor) that somewhere in one of their seats they’ll be challenged by an independent who may win. I have no knowledge of who or where, but there are 13 Nats seats, it’s a fair bet there’ll at least be a close contest somewhere.