A Nielsen poll out this week has the Coalition leading Labor 55-45 on a two party preferred basis with primaries running at 43 per cent, 31 per cent for Labor and 13 per cent for The Greens.
The Labor primary has not moved since the State ALP conference were Labor figures, including the Premier, were expecting the dumping of the unpopular Joe Tripodi and the populist reaction to the issue of political donations to provide a boost. Indeed, some were claiming that if there wasn’t a bounce it would be the end of Rees’ leadership.
Further polling revealed that the Coalition is now leading Labor as better handlers of every policy area besides education, which is evenly split at 44 per cent.
This is a terrible result for Labor and shows they are far behind in their traditionally strong areas.
Unsurprisingly, the polls have renewed leadership speculation. The problem is still the Right’s inability to choose a replacement.
Today there were rumours of a John Della Bosca-Eric Roozendaal ticket challenging at the final caucus meeting of the year tomorrow. Not a very surprising combo but still just a rumour.
You would think that Labor would be happy enough with the federal Liberal Party exploding without having to create their own excitement. On the other hand, maybe they will use the cover of tomorrow’s Liberal leadership spill to do their own knifing?
True, Tripodi was unpopular… and the Federal Liberal party all seem like mad uncles at the moment (Wilson Tuckey for leader would be appropriate?)
But the people of NSW would like to be able to go to hospital and not be stuck in a corridor, or catch a train that a) doesn’t run late, b) isn’t stinky and crowded and c) doesn’t get cancelled for running too late or being too crowded.
Getting rid of one person who is likely to be instrumental in how the state is right now is a lovely theoretical step. But the practical is in such disarray that at best it could stop the polls from falling. Maybe it did.
Della-Roozendaal? Few issues there. 1/ Roozendaal is a bit of a loner without much backing and no-one is stupid enough to vote for Della. 2/ Both in the LC. No chance.
I still reckon Rees will hold on.
I agree Hamish Coffee. I don’t know how likely a challenge will be before next year. Probably not very likely.
Random thought –
One of the supposed political stumbling blocks to having Della as leader is that he’s in the LC and there’s no seat safe enough, nor an MP willing to stand aside, to let him in.
Well if he rolls Rees, I don’t know whether Rees would hang around, so he could slip into Toongabbie!
I’m sure the voters there would love that.
There are plenty of safe seats for Della Bosca, really, no matter how terrible the government.
People in Liverpool, Fairfield, Blacktown, Mount Druitt, Smithfield, Bankstown, Auburn, Granville, etc would vote for a headless chook if it had ALP written on it.
Labor comfortably won Cabramatta and Lakemba even when they imploded in Ryde, so the argument about by-elections being too tricky is a bit silly. Who else is someone in Mount Druitt going to vote for? The Greens? Fred Nile??
But would any of those MP’s move for Della?
If the powers that be decided Della was going to be leader and have a safe seat, I imagien the relevant local MP wouldn’t have much of a say.
Perhaps they’d be offered Della’s LC seat as a sort of reward….
Ooooh, the mad monk is the new Lib leader:
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/tony-abbott-new-liberal-leader/story-e6freuzr-1225805627592
Surprise surprise, no leadership challenge.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/01/2758613.htm
One comment on the Federal leadership change in the Libs – can somebody out there tell Annabel Crabb repeatedly using the nickname for People Skills is excessively unfunny. It worked in 2007 but constant repetition seems to only draw attention to how clever Annabel Crabb thinks she is.
The next interesting milestone in NSW of course is March 2010. At that time there will be a lot of Labor MP’s who will have seven years from the 2003 election and hence be ready to resign and collect their super. Sartor for one qualifies for super at this time – why would you wait for the untergang when you can cash in the super and watch the by-election carnage
I don’t think there’ll be by-elections but I do think quite a few MPs will leave at the 2011 election. Long-serving MPs will dread the potential long years of Opposition again, and several marginal seat holders might jump before they’re pushed.
Suggestions Roozendaal would get Wollongong, and Noreen Hay given an upper house seat:
http://www.illawarramercury.com.au/news/local/news/general/noreen-hay-rejects-talk-of-seat-swap/1693075.aspx
I saw that but I don’t buy it.
This Government isn’t oblivious of what the public think. They know that they aren’t too popular at the moment. They wouldn’t spark a by-election (Headline: Government costs taxpayer $1m for by-election) to parachute a not overly known MLC into the LA to become premier.
If there’s a spill it will come from the lower house.