Archive for the ‘State Election’ Category

Independent NSW MLC Gordon Moyes has just announced he is joining Family First, becoming their first MP in NSW.

Moyes was elected to the Legislative Council in 2002 as a member of the Christian Democratic Party. He served in that capacity until 2009 when he was expelled from the party after a number of personal and policy clashes with the CDP and its leader, Fred Nile.

Immediately after he was expelled Moyes entered discussions with Family First about becoming a member and leading their upper house ticket in the 2011 election.

It’s an interesting, if not unexpected, move by Moyes. Whilst undoubtedly a social conservative he has sided with The Greens on a number of occasions and voted against the Government to subpoena documents in a range of areas.

Moyes holds a key balance of power position in the NSW upper house and his vote is often required to pass legislation. His modus operandi in Parliament seems to be to approach each issue on its merits and compare it to his personal beliefs and values. It will be interesting to see whether this changes now that he is once again a member of a political party. There are a few stark policy differences between Moyes and the Family First Senator Steve Fielding – most notably on the issue of climate change. Where Fielding is a climate sceptic/denialist, Moyes is a firm believer who has often advocated for stronger action on protecting the environment.

It’s difficult to predict the results of the next election but it is unlikely that Moyes would be re-elected. The Christian Right vote in the last few elections has only been high enough to elect one MLC – last election the CDP received 2.4%. It is possible that disgruntlement with both major parties could see a boost in the Christian vote, but I think this split will offset any positives to be gained from a small vote boost.

It looks like we have another schism between Family First Senator Steve Fielding and Gordon Moyes, this time on the issue of asylum seekers.

This week Steve Fielding said of the 78 asylum seekers on board the Oceanic Viking:

This is our boat, it’s been hijacked by the refugees, and the Rudd government hasn’t got a clue what to do. Those people trying to jump the queue should go to the back of the queue.

Today, Gordon Moyes has announced a completely different position:

Kevin Rudd could solve the problem of the 78 Sri Lankan boat people on the Australian vessel in Indonesian waters by ordering today that the ship bring them to Australia. Process them in Perth or Port Hedland, then bring them to Sydney.

He also goes on to describe his experiences in resettling illegal refugees in the 1960’s.

This is a stark policy difference and mirrors the difference between the two parliamentarians on climate change. Only one day into the “leadership” of the NSW branch of Family First and Moyes is already picking fights with the Federal leader. Looks like it might be a habit…


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The Liberal and National parties in NSW have formally signed an agreement clarifying their relationship in the build up to the next election.

The National Party will run in Monaro (ALP), Tamworth (IND), Dubbo (IND) and Bathurst (ALP). The Liberals will run in Wollondilly (ALP) and gain an extra spot on the upper house ticket.

On current numbers I would expect the Liberals to win both those seats, The Nationals to win Monaro and be competitive in Tamworth and Dubbo.

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I know the State election is almost two years away but these days it looks like the Australian political blogosphere likes nothing more than watching Labor supporters go at it with Green supporters.

Following on from recent Green successes in the ACT and the Fremantle by-election I have been involved in many heated debates on Pollbludger, Pollytics and The Tally Room. The general nature of the debates varies but the same questions keep popping up. Is the rise in The Green’s vote over the past election cycle something the major parties should be worried about or is it just a protest vote? Has support for The Greens reached its ceiling? If The Greens are a serious third force in Australian politics than why can’t they win lower house seats in a general election?

The last point is the one I want to focus on in this post. In terms of shifting perception away from The Greens being considered a Senate party or just a protest party in the same vein as the Democrats, as well as actually gaining more power and influence, it is important that The Greens start winning lower house heats.


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First up, an apology for the lack of posts lately. I’ve been busy and I got far too distracted by the “utegate” shenanigans. I have quite a few posts lined up and I’ll be getting to work on my history and background of NSW politics so be sure to visit often.

Now to the poll.

Published in The Australian today, Newspoll has Labor’s primary vote down two points to 31 per cent, the Coalition up one point to 41 per cent for a two party preferred figure of 55-45.

Nathan Rees’ satisfaction rating has dropped four points to 30 per cent and his dissatisfaction is up three to 49 per cent. Barry O’Farrell’s satisfaction and dissatisfaction are both on 34 per cent.


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